π Quant & Trading
Factor & Correlation Models
Decomposes asset returns into exposure to systematic risk factors (value, momentum, quality, size) via regression. PCA or factor analysis identifies hidden correlation structure and prevents building a portfolio where everything moves together.
2
Minutes
3
Concepts
+15+30
Read+Quiz
1
How It Works
Factor Regression Model
r_i = Ξ± + Ξ²βΒ·MKT + Ξ²βΒ·SMB + Ξ²βΒ·HML + Ξ²βΒ·RMW + Ξ²β Β·CMA + Ξ΅
- Ξ± (alpha): the return your portfolio earns after accounting for factor exposure β the holy grail
- Ξ²s (factor loadings): how much exposure you have to each systematic factor
- Ξ΅ (residual): idiosyncratic return β the stock-specific noise
Fama-French 5-Factor Model
| Factor | What It Captures | Long | Short |
|---|---|---|---|
| MKT | Market risk premium | Market | Risk-free |
| SMB | Size effect | Small caps | Large caps |
| HML | Value effect | High B/M | Low B/M |
| RMW | Profitability | Robust profits | Weak profits |
| CMA | Investment | Conservative | Aggressive |
Correlation Matrices and Their Lies
Raw correlation tells you the average relationship. It hides two critical things:
- Regime-dependent correlations: In a crisis, correlations spike toward 1.0. That "diversifying" asset starts moving in lockstep with everything else. The 2008 crisis, March 2020 COVID crash, and 2022 rate shock all showed correlations converging when you need diversification most.
- Spurious correlation from shared factor exposure: Two stocks might show 0.3 correlation, but if you decompose them, they're both 80% momentum factor β when momentum reverses, they both get crushed together.
PCA for Hidden Structure
PCA reduces your NΓN correlation matrix into a handful of uncorrelated principal components. In practice:
- PC1 almost always maps to "the market" (explains 40-60% of variance)
- PC2 often maps to a growth-vs-value rotation
- PC3+ capture sector rotations, rates sensitivity, etc.
If your first 2 PCs explain 80%+ of your portfolio's variance, you don't have 20 positions β you have 2 bets with a lot of window dressing.
Decorrelation Benefits
Adding a genuinely uncorrelated return stream to a portfolio improves Sharpe ratio even if the stream itself has a mediocre Sharpe:
Sharpe_portfolio = (wβΒ·Sβ + wβΒ·Sβ) / β(wβΒ²+ wβΒ² + 2Β·wβΒ·wβΒ·ΟΒ·ΟβΒ·Οβ)
When Ο β 0, the denominator shrinks and portfolio Sharpe goes up. This is why hedge funds pay a premium for uncorrelated alpha.