📖 Business
Four Product Risks
Every product idea carries four distinct risks that must be addressed during discovery — before committing to expensive delivery work. Cagan argues that most product failures trace back to one or more of these risks being ignored. The four risks form a complete checklist: if you can confidently answer "yes" to all four, the idea is worth building. If any answer is uncertain, that is where discovery effort should focus. Most teams only seriously evaluate one (feasibility) and skip the other three, which is why technically sound products routinely fail in the market.
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XP
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How It Works
  • (1) Value Risk — Will customers buy it or choose to use it? This is the most common point of failure. People say they want things they will never actually use. Value must be tested with real behavior (sign-ups, usage, payment), not opinions or surveys
  • (2) Usability Risk — Can users figure out how to use it? A valuable product that is confusing or frustrating will fail. Tested through user prototypes and usability sessions with real target users, not internal team members
  • (3) Feasibility Risk — Can engineering build it within the time, skill, and technology constraints? This includes performance requirements, scalability needs, third-party dependencies, and regulatory/compliance constraints. Engineers must be involved in discovery to assess this
  • (4) Business Viability Risk — Does it work for the rest of the business? Will sales be able to sell it? Can marketing position it? Does legal approve? Does finance see the unit economics working? Does it align with the brand? These are the stakeholder concerns and they are legitimate
  • Ownership mapping: the PM owns value and viability. The designer owns usability. Engineering owns feasibility. All four are addressed collaboratively, but accountability is clear
  • The risks are not equal in every situation. A technically straightforward feature for an existing user base may have low feasibility and usability risk but high value risk. A moonshot R&D project may have high feasibility risk but proven value